The Standard Reserve · Launch and horizon sandbox · Unofficial

What does the launch actually price in?

Launch Mechanics
By @zerokn0wledge_ · Mint 14 Sep 2026
Read this first. The launch thread fixed the whitelist price (0.15 ETH), the public auction (1.25 to 0.15 over 30 minutes) and where the ETH goes (100% liquidity and vaults). The mint page showed 450 of 1,000 spots allocated on 13 Sep. Everything after the open is a weekly simulation of the whitepaper mechanics driven by the sliders on the left. Fact = announced or in the whitepaper. Assumption = yours to disagree with. Not affiliated, not financial advice.
Scenarios
Launch day
Seats minted on whitelistAsm
Flat 0.15 ETH, one per wallet. 450 spots were allocated on 13 Sep, more get added at launch.
Public seats that sellAsm
Avg public clearing priceAsm
ETH added by the teamAsm
Not announced. The mint was originally free and the team said demand outgrew the plan.
Share of ETH into the poolAsm
Proceeds fund "initial liquidity and the protocol vaults", split undisclosed. Only the pool side sets the price.
Net ETH bought, first hourAsm
ETH price, USD
The path after launch
HorizonAsm
Weeks in contractionAsm
Share of weeks with net ETH outflow. The model runs cycles: an expansion run, then a contraction run, repeated.
Cycle lengthAsm
Net buying per expansion weekAsm
Trader ETH in, as a share of the pool's ETH. Full range constant product, so price moves with the square.
Net selling per contraction weekAsm
Issuance
Base issuance runwayAsm
Multiplier at launchAsm
Assumed range 0.5x to 2x. Each expansion week adds 0.125x, each contraction week halves it. Actual steps are TBA.
Bankers
Licenses sold per dayAsm
Of the 100 on offer daily. Paid from earned balances in $STANDARD, burned. Capped at 10 branches per charter.
License clearing priceAsm
Days of one branch's yield per license. Floor is about 2, a day with no prior sale opens at 4.
Balance withdrawn per weekAsm
Share of all earned balances bankers retire each week. Exit fee assumed 2% floor to 25% ceiling, saturating at 20% weekly exit pressure. Half burns, half pays stayers.
Withdrawn tokens soldAsm
Hits the pool on top of trader flow. The rest sits in wallets as float.
Market
Daily volume, % of FDVAsm
Trading feeAsm
Rate TBA. ETH side routes 70% to the active vault, 15% to permanent liquidity, 15% to the team. $STANDARD side is always burned.
First hour
Minute you buyAsm
Tax half-lifeAsm
90% at open, decays over the first hour, "the majority within the first 5 minutes". Curve and direction undisclosed, modelled as taken from the buyer's tokens.
The link carries every slider. Send it instead of a screenshot.
The system, in one look
$STANDARD at horizonAsm
A whitelist seat earnsAsm
Seat paybackAsm
Bank balance sheetAsm

In one paragraph this scenario, in words

What has to be true the assumptions doing the work

    The path

    $STANDARD price green weeks expand, red weeks contract

    One branch earns per day USD at spot, diluted as branches grow

    Whitelist seat, earnings vs cost accrued $STANDARD at spot vs 0.15 ETH

    Supply issued, burned, float outside the pool

    Balance sheet in ETH permanent liquidity, hard reserves, buyback vault

    Fee ETH per week what the engine has to work with after the mint

    Milestones the same scenario at fixed points in time

    How wrong can you be seat value at horizon, ETH per 0.15 ETH seat

    Cells: seat value in ETH at horizon · price multiple vs launch. Rows vary the share of contraction weeks, columns the net buying per expansion week, everything else as set. Bold cell is your case.

    Seat economics at horizon repriced at the end of the path

    Launch day
    ETH raised at mintFact
    Launch priceFact
    Launch FDVFact
    After the first hourAsm

    Where the ETH comes from mint plus team

    Whitelist seats
    Public seats at the floor
    Public premium above the floor
    Team top-upnot announced
    Total ETH into the system
    Into the pool / into the vaults
    Whitelist allocated on 13 Sepmint page, more to be added at launch450 seats
    Hard floor and ceiling from the mint1,000 × 0.15 and 1,000 × 1.25150 to 1,250 ETH

    First hour anti-snipe tax and the square law

    Tax at your minute
    Effective cost per tokenspot ÷ (1 − tax)
    ETH to double the launch pricepool × (√2 − 1)
    ETH to 10xpool × (√10 − 1)
    Day one license band2 to 4 days of one branch's yield
    Mechanics: standardreserve.xyz/whitepaper · launch thread 13 Sep 2026 · Sister model: reservemoonmath.xyz Model + design: @zerokn0wledge_